The pure fact that Zynga is not doing anything different to other gaming gambling operators, I put their chance of success as 30%... my reasoning set out in my blog post (might be a bit long & may even need grammatical help, happy to take any corrections/suggestions): http://garethwong.org/GamingFuture2013/
In short however, Mark and Team need to focus on their strength and not to emulate others and create new products and services (that people need but not sure they want yet) rather than doing stupid simple product extensions which everyone else is doing and have been doing for years!!
Also look at new business model, distribution channels also, as they are now moving into a grown up and VERY competitive market.. some has 10+ year start to the game!
Founder/CEO of GamBond®, (creating new billion/trillion $ financial vertical) (essentially we guarantee companies that do not fail by monitoring their cash flow+cash reserve vs outstanding risks vs market & industry benchmark) Yup, provide a real alternative for companies of being rated, listed or audited.
As a hobby, I focus on highest level of networking with CXOs (CEO,CFO,CIO/CTO, Snr. HR directors of firms with £3m+/$5m+ profits min.) across all sectors, verticals and countries.
Strategist: Board Advisor to mid market firms to capitalise on cross industry niches from devising strategy to market expansions (from Financial, FMCGs, to social gaming gambling TV/ Entertainment industries).