As promised to @laragon /Lawrence, I will comment to one of the PeHub post soon... hope this fulfils my promise. ;)
I think to adopt the Buddhism motto, "everything is meaningless" could be a good approach, .. let me explain:
especially in the online/startup world (hight capital expenditure world of telecommunication is different), due to their nature, even likes of google, facebook and even microsoft could change their business/direction/products/T&Cs on a drop of a hat... what does that mean to users and or loyalty??
as the Google+ might just be the favourite new baby daughter now (& google labs!?) how soon would the public sentiment/expectation change (and boy they do!) and then the new service becomes the ugly sister that no one want to know?
Therefore, unless and until one of these system/product(s) become so integrated with our OFFLINE lives that we cannot live without them (literally), then, that product/services would be the winner..
As otherwise, everything is meaningless.. as the barrier to entry is not that high (in the online world), loyalty is limited (especially for startups or even subsidiaries of big corporates, Apple excluded), and there will ALWAYS be the next favourite daughter of the month..
Ultimately, winner probably exhibit all of the following:
1.) when the taxi /cab drivers are talking about the product, NOT ONLY as a fad but USING such service actively/daily
2.) service move closer to the money/cash flow (guess google checkout is one? more powerful than buying virtual goods via facebook for example, yes hardcore gaming live or die by their virtual lives but that is considered as 'addiction' which is typically single % of target audience)
3.) networking effect sets in that target NOT only online communities but also rest of the population, including the old ladies in the mall /local markets (who probably do not yet use internet but has a mobile only..)
but then again, thats only from my tinted boring glasses (my typical medium to long term view..), as I don't look at short term sadly, a good example, I observe each start-up a year before I use them (blogger.com , twitter etc.) .. not sure if I should be proud to say that I joined facebook using my business school email address before the free for all now.. (I did wait!)
Based on my above thought process then, I would probably bet on Google+ though (despite i do not use it yet!)
@GarethWong
"Now, we’ll watch over the next 24 months as each of these Internet titans slug it out for the title of most dominant social network. The brewing brouhaha also leaves plenty of questions, and that’s where you come in, dear readers: Who will win? And, is the title of “top social network” a permanent role, or one that is bound to shift every few years to the “next big thing?” Also, what is the impact that will be felt by businesses dependent on Facebook’s and Google’s reach for their advertising and subscription revenue — who will be winners and losers?"
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